Ever since Hugo Chavez´s rise to power in 1998, the opposition has announced (like the boy who cried wolf) that the demise of the Chavista regime was around the corner. After 15 years, it is hard to find similar allegations to be truthful or realistic. The institutionalists in the armed forces did not overthrow the government, the opposition did not win the elections, and the economic crises have not roused the pro-Chavez masses against the government they elected. The hypotheses presented by the opposition have proven wrong repeatedly.